Seminar
Past
Some Inference Perils of Imposing a Taylor Rule
Franck Portier (Toulouse School of Economics and CEPR)
- Date16 May 2023
- Time 11h30 - 12h30
- Room 4 Espace Conférence & Online
Résumé
The way monetary policy is conducted is a key element in New Keynesian models, and crucially determines allocations’ properties. We show that assuming monetary authorities follow a Taylor rule may bias estimation of New Keynesian type models for two reasons. The first one is theoretically trivial, and is a standard misspecification bias that occurs if the actual conduct of policy does not follow the model specified Taylor rule. The second one is more subtle, and we refer to it as a determinacy bias. It occurs when wrongly assuming a Taylor rule restricts the set of admissible model deep parameters when one requires the equilibrium to be determinate, as is almost always the case in the applied literature. Using US data, we show that the determinacy bias is a serious problem in small scale New Keynesian models, as the slope of Phillips curve is biased upwards. The misspecification bias is a serious problem when estimating a medium-scale model, as it affects the contribution of the various shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations. We propose an alternative agnostic specification of the policy rule that is immune to both misspecification and determinacy biases.
Related document(s)
Other seminars
What Do 12 Billion Card Transactions Say About House Prices and Consumption?
-
Seminar
-
Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars
-
Date 1 December 2026
-
Place online and room 4 great hall
-
Speaker or organiser Ragnar Enger Juelsrud (Norges Bank)
Détails
Quantitative Easing and Government Debt Sustainability
-
Seminar
-
Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars
-
Date 17 November 2026
-
Place Online and room 6 Great Hall
-
Speaker or organiser Sebastian Merkel (University of Bristol)
Détails
Past
Inflation Expectations and Wage Setting: The Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
-
Seminar
-
Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars
-
Date 3 November 2026
-
Place Online and room E336
-
Speaker or organiser Sarah Lein (University of Basel)
Détails