Seminar
Inflation Expectations and Wage Setting: The Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity
Sarah Lein (University of Basel)
- Date3 November 2026
- Time 11h30 - 12h30
- Room Online and room E336
Abstract
The pass-through of inflation expectations into wages is typically found to be modest. We show that this aggregate response masks substantial heterogeneity across firms and that downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) plays a central role in shaping both the magnitude and the horizon of this pass-through. Combining a randomized information provision experiment involving Swiss firm managers with a granular measure of DNWR derived from administrative wage data, we find that firms with high DNWR exposure exhibit substantially stronger pass-through of inflation expectations into expected wage growth than firms with low exposure. Moreover, while the response is strongest for short-term inflation expectations, longer-term expectations also affect current wage plans among firms with high DNWR exposure. We develop a stylized wage-setting framework that rationalizes these findings. When nominal wage cuts are constrained, current wage decisions restrict firms' ability to adjust wages in the future. Anticipating this constraint, firms incorporate inflation expectations beyond the current wage contract into their wage-setting decisions. DNWR thus amplifies the pass-through of inflation expectations into wages and extends the horizon over which these expectations matter.
Other seminars
Financial stability workshop - "Strategic Interaction Among AI Agents: Evidence from Payment Systems"
-
Seminar
-
Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars
-
Date 6 November 2026
-
Place salle 4 espace conférences
-
Speaker or organiser Janet Jiang (Banque du Canada)
Details
Past
Pre-Trends Ahead of Monetary Policy Surprises: Recovering the Response of Corporate Investment
-
Seminar
-
Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars
-
Date 13 October 2026
-
Place Online and Room 4 conference space
-
Speaker or organiser Antoine Hubert de Fraisse (London School of Economics)
Details
Past
The Role of Macroeconomic Uncertainty for Endogenous Attention to Central Bank Communication
-
Seminar
-
Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars
-
Date 6 October 2026
-
Place Online and in Room F148
-
Speaker or organiser Lena Dräger (Leibniz Universität Hannover)
Details