Seminar

Past

Targeted Taylor Rules: Some Evidence and Theory

Cristina Manea

  • Date19 May 2026
  • Time 11h30 - 12h30
  • Room Room 4 and Online

Résumé

We introduce targeted Taylor rules: monetary policy rules which allow for different reactions to demand– and supply–driven inflation. This new concept aligns with the strategy of the Federal Reserve — as reflected in its official communications. Estimates of this new type of rule suggest that U.S. monetary policy has reacted nearly fourfold more strongly to demand– than to supply–driven inflation since Paul Volcker’s Chairmanship. These results obtain both when using off–the–shelf decompositions of inflation in demand and supply factors, as well as novel measures of demand– and supply–driven inflation derived with an advanced reasoning Large Language Model (LLM) applied to FOMC transcripts. We show how to embed this new type of rule into a New-Keynesian model with simultaneous demand and supply shocks, and discuss its implications for business cycle fluctuations and welfare.

Related document(s)

Other seminars

What Do 12 Billion Card Transactions Say About House Prices and Consumption?

  • Seminar

  • Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars

  • Date 1 December 2026

  • Place online and room 4 great hall

  • Speaker or organiser Ragnar Enger Juelsrud (Norges Bank)

Détails

Quantitative Easing and Government Debt Sustainability

  • Seminar

  • Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars

  • Date 17 November 2026

  • Place Online and room 6 Great Hall

  • Speaker or organiser Sebastian Merkel (University of Bristol)

Détails

Past

Inflation Expectations and Wage Setting: The Role of Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity

  • Seminar

  • Banque de France - TSE Macroeconomics Seminars

  • Date 3 November 2026

  • Place Online and room E336

  • Speaker or organiser Sarah Lein (University of Basel)

Détails