Seminar

Past

Supply Shocks in the Fog: The Role of Endogenous Uncertainty

Céline Poilly

  • Date10 December 2024
  • Time 11h30 - 12h30
  • Room Room 4GH and online

Abstract

Endogenous uncertainty acts as an aggregate-demand amplification mechanism of supply shocks. Using U.S. data, we first stress that taking into account time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty leads to a significantly stronger recession and less inflationary pressures, in response to a TFP shock. In addition, we show empirically that households' misperception increases during recessions. To rationalize these findings, we build a noisy-information New-Keynesian model where the precision of signals increases with economic activity. Pro-cyclical precision of information gives rise to an amplified precautionary saving behavior. A full-fledged model parametrized by using consumer-based forecast errors generates a demand-like recession of supply shock.

Other seminars

Pre-Trends Ahead of Monetary Policy Surprises: Recovering the Response of Corporate Investment

  • Seminar

  • Séminaire Banque de France

  • Date 13 October 2026

  • Place Online and Room 4 conference space

  • Speaker or organiser Antoine Hubert de Fraisse (London School of Economics)

Details

Past

The Role of Macroeconomic Uncertainty for Endogenous Attention to Central Bank Communication

  • Seminar

  • Séminaire Banque de France

  • Date 6 October 2026

  • Place Online and in Room F148

  • Speaker or organiser Lena Dräger (Leibniz Universität Hannover)

Details

Past

Innovate to Borrow: How Intangibles Shape Finance and Growth

  • Seminar

  • Séminaire Banque de France

  • Date 29 September 2026

  • Place Online and in Room 4 of the congress space

  • Speaker or organiser Victoria Vanasco (CREI)

Details