Seminar

Past

Inference on Winners

Isaiah Andrews

  • Date30 November 2021
  • Time 15h30 - 17h00
  • Room Online

Abstract

Many empirical questions concern target parameters selected through optimization. For example, researchers may be interested in the effectiveness of the best policy found in a randomized trial, or the best-performing investment strategy based on historical data. Such settings give rise to a winner’s curse, where conventional estimates are biased and conventional confidence intervals are unreliable. This paper develops optimal confidence intervals and median-unbiased estimators that are valid conditional on the target selected and so overcome this winner’s curse. If one requires validity only on average over targets that might have been selected,we develop hybrid procedures that combine conditional and projection confidence intervals to offer further performance gains relative to existing alternatives

Related document(s)

Other seminars

To be announced

  • Seminar

  • Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar

  • Date 18 May 2027

  • Place Auditorium 4

  • Speaker or organiser Andres Santos (University California - Los Angeles)

Details

To be announced

  • Seminar

  • Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar

  • Date 11 May 2027

  • Place Auditorium 4

  • Speaker or organiser Oscar Volpe (Harvard University)

Details

To be announced

  • Seminar

  • Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar

  • Date 27 April 2027

  • Place Auditorium 4

  • Speaker or organiser Andreas Fagereng (BI Norwegian Business School)

Details