Seminar
Pronatalist Policies and Household Decisions: A Dynamic Model of Fertility, Labor Supply and Child Care
Minji Bang (Cambridge University)
- Date17 November 2026
- Time 15h30 - 16h50
- Room Auditorium 4
Abstract
After four decades of declining fertility, Australia introduced a suite of pronatalist policies starting in 2004, including a baby bonus, family tax benefits, child care subsidies and paid parental leave. This paper analyzes the effects of these policies on fertility, labor supply and child care choices over the life cycle. To do so, it develops and estimates a dynamic life-cycle model of couples' labor supply, fertility and child care decisions that allows for rich heterogeneity across and within couples, the risk of divorce, and all of the pronatalist programs at their legislated year-by-year schedules. Model parameters are estimated by Simulated Method of Moments using HILDA data. Counterfactual simulations show that the ongoing Family Tax Benefit and the childcare subsidy account for most of the policy bundle's effect on completed fertility, while the one-off Baby Bonus has no detectable effect. The instruments are also substitutes rather than complements: each adds less to fertility within the existing bundle than it would on its own.
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Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
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Date 18 May 2027
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Speaker or organiser Andres Santos (University California - Los Angeles)
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Date 11 May 2027
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Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
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Speaker or organiser Andreas Fagereng (BI Norwegian Business School)
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