Seminar
Past
Production function estimation using subjective expectations data
Aureo de Paula
- Date10 December 2024
- Time 15h30 - 16h50
- Room Auditorium 4
Abstract
Standard methods for estimating production functions in the Olley and Pakes (1996) tradition require assumptions on input choices. We introduce a new method that exploits (increasingly available) data on a firm’s expectations of its future output and inputs that allows us to obtain consistent production function parameter estimates while relaxing these input demand assumptions. In contrast to dynamic panel methods, our proposed estimator can be implemented on very short panels (including a single cross-section), and Monte Carlo simulations show it outperforms alternative estimators when firms’ material input choices are subject to optimization error. Implementing a range of production function estimators on UK data, we find our proposed estimator yields results that are either similar to or more credible than commonly-used alternatives. These differences are larger in industries where material inputs appear harder to optimize. We show that TFP implied by our proposed estimator is more strongly associated with future jobs growth than existing methods, suggesting that failing to adequately account for input endogeneity may underestimate the degree of dynamic reallocation in the economy
Related document(s)
Other seminars
To be announced
-
Seminar
-
Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
-
Date 18 May 2027
-
Place Auditorium 4
-
Speaker or organiser Andres Santos (University California - Los Angeles)
Details
To be announced
-
Seminar
-
Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
-
Date 11 May 2027
-
Place Auditorium 4
-
Speaker or organiser Oscar Volpe (Harvard University)
Details
To be announced
-
Seminar
-
Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
-
Date 27 April 2027
-
Place Auditorium 4
-
Speaker or organiser Andreas Fagereng (BI Norwegian Business School)
Details