- Date23 April 2024
- Time 14h00 - 15h30
- Room Auditorium 4
Résumé
Does the Federal Reserve follow a communication rule? We propose a simple framework to estimate communication rules, which we conceptualize as a systematic mapping between the Fed’s expectations of macroeconomic variables and the words they use to talk about the economy. Using text analysis and regularized regressions, we find strong evidence for systematic communication rules that vary over time, with changes in the rule often being associated with changes in the economic environment. We also find that shifts in communication rules increase disagreement among professional forecasters and correlate with monetary policy surprise measures. Our method is general and can be applied to investigate systematic communication in a wide variety of settings.
Related document(s)
Other seminars
To be announced
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Seminar
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Macroeconomics Seminar
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Date 1 December 2026
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Place Auditorium 4
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Speaker or organiser Mishel Ghassibe (CREI, Barcelona)
Détails
Past
Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn't Speak
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Seminar
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Macroeconomics Seminar
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Date 3 November 2026
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Place Auditorium 4
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Speaker or organiser Silvia Miranda Aggripino (Oxford University)
Détails
Past
The EU Miracle: When 75 Million Reach High Income
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Seminar
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Macroeconomics Seminar
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Date 13 October 2026
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Place Auditorium 4
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Speaker or organiser Basile Grassi (Bocconi University)
Détails