Seminar

Past

The Inflation Uncertainty Amplifier

Efrem Castelnuovo

  • Date14 April 2026
  • Time 14h00 - 15h30
  • Room Auditorium 4

Résumé

We study how uncertainty shocks affect the macroeconomy across the inflation cycle using a nonlinear stochastic volatility-in-mean VAR. When inflation is high, uncertainty shocks raise inflation and depress real activity more sharply. A nonlinear New Keynesian model with secondmoment shocks and trend inflation explains this via an "inflation-uncertainty amplifier": the interaction between high trend inflation and firms’ upward price bias magnifies the effects of uncertainty by increasing price dispersion. An aggressive policy response can replicate the allocation achieved under standard policy when trend inflation is low.

Related document(s)

Other seminars

To be announced

  • Seminar

  • Macroeconomics Seminar

  • Date 1 December 2026

  • Place Auditorium 4

  • Speaker or organiser Mishel Ghassibe (CREI, Barcelona)

Détails

Interest Rate Surprises When the Fed Doesn't Speak

  • Seminar

  • Macroeconomics Seminar

  • Date 3 November 2026

  • Place Auditorium 4

  • Speaker or organiser Silvia Miranda Agrippino (Oxford University)

Détails

Past

The EU Miracle: When 75 Million Reach High Income

  • Seminar

  • Macroeconomics Seminar

  • Date 13 October 2026

  • Place Auditorium 4

  • Speaker or organiser Basile Grassi (Bocconi University)

Détails