Seminar

Past

Identification of the Impact of Industry-Wide Promotion Campaigns on Movie Demand

Andreea Enache

  • Date4 November 2024
  • Time 14h15 - 15h30
  • Room Auditorium 4

Abstract

We uncover the effects of industry-coordinated promotion sales events that occurred with regularity in the Parisian cinemas from 2001 to 2012. In order to accurately estimate the impact of these promotions on the demand for movies, we proceed to a structural estimation that separately identifies the seasonal underlying movie demand from the competition effects, weather shocks, and seasonal sale promotions. We use a modified nested logit that allows us to identify the underlying demand while taking into account the capacity constraint imposed by the existence of a limited number of screens. We highlight the trade-off between the market expansion and the business stealing effect due to the fixed number of screens in a movie theater. This trade-off is especially relevant during the promotion periods and can impact their profitability, as the number of screens on which movies are exhibited strongly limits the expansion of demand for movies. We study the factors that drive the profitability of the promotion campaigns. We find evidence of pre-promotion dips, but no evidence of post-promotion dips. We use the estimated model to predict movie revenues in scenarios with and without promotion campaigns and with and without capacity constraints. (joint with Christophe Bellégo)

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