Seminar
Past
Debiased Bayesian Inference on Average Treatment Effects
Christoph Breunig (University of Bonn, Germany)
- Date31 May 2022
- Time 15h30 - 17h00
- Room Auditorium 4
Abstract
We propose a debiased Bayesian inference method for the average treatment effect (ATE) for binary outcomes under conditional unconfoundedness. Under unconfoundedness, the ATE can be written as a population average of conditional means. We use a nonparametric Bayesian approach for these conditional mean functions, which builds on a data-dependent prior. We propose a novel correction term that builds on residuals weighted by the inverse propensity score. Due to this correction, our semiparametric Bayesian approach resembles the efficient influence function of frequentist ATE estimation. In fact, we show asymptotic equivalence of our debiased Bayesian estimator and efficient frequentist estimators by establishing a version of the Bernstein-von Mises theorem. In particular, we show that Bayesian credible sets form confidence intervals in the frequentist sense with asymptotically accurate coverage probability. Our debiased Bayesian inference results require smoothness conditions only of a “double-robust” form that allows the smoothness of the regression function to be compensated by the smoothness of the propensity score and vice versa. In simulations, we find that our debiasing correction leads to accurate coverage of confidence intervals. We illustrate our method in an application to the National Supported Work Demonstration.
Other seminars
To be announced
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Seminar
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Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
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Date 18 May 2027
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Place Auditorium 4
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Speaker or organiser Andres Santos (University California - Los Angeles)
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To be announced
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Seminar
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Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
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Date 11 May 2027
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Place Auditorium 4
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Speaker or organiser Oscar Volpe (Harvard University)
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To be announced
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Seminar
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Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar
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Date 27 April 2027
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Place Auditorium 4
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Speaker or organiser Andreas Fagereng (BI Norwegian Business School)
Details