Seminar

Past

Are Long-Horizon Expectations (De-)Stabilizing? Theory and Experiments

Cars Hommes

  • Date5 April 2022
  • Time 14h00 - 15h30
  • Room Auditorium 4

Abstract

The impact of finite forecasting horizons on price dynamics is examined in a standard infinite-horizon asset-pricing model. Our theoretical results link forecasting horizon inversely to expectational feedback, and predict a positive relationship between expectational feedback and various measures of asset-price volatility. We design a laboratory experiment to test these predictions. Consistent with our theory, short-horizon markets are prone to substantial and prolonged deviations from rational expectations, whereas markets with even a modest share of long-horizon forecasters exhibit convergence. Longer-horizon forecasts display more heterogeneity but also prevent coordination on incorrect anchors – a pattern that leads to mispricing in short-horizon markets.

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