October 26, 2023, 11:30–12:30
BDF, Paris
Room C037 & Online
Séminaire Banque de France
Abstract
Macroeconomic data releases drive US bond yields primarily through the term premium instead of the expectation channel. The evidence exploits a monthly specification for yields embedding the impacts of news identified from high-frequency data. To match the facts, we develop and calibrate a no-arbitrage model where investors learn about future monetary policy using data releases with imperfect information. If macro news carry perfect information, the model predicts that the bonds’ Sharpe ratio decreases and the term premium declines by half for every maturity, suggesting that central bank’s communication can lower the term premium and financing costs across the economy
Keywords
Macro-Finance, Term Structure, Imperfect Information, Bayesian Learning;
JEL codes
- C32: Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes
- E43: Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12: Asset Pricing • Trading Volume • Bond Interest Rates