A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases whenprocessing information about themselves, but less is known about the under-lying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regardingacademic ability in a large sample of students transitioning from middle to highschool in Mexico City. The analysis takes advantage of rich and longitudinal dataon subjective beliefs together with randomized feedback about individual perfor-mance on an achievement test. On average, the performance feedback reducesthe relative role of priors on posteriors and shifts substantial probability masstoward the signal. Further evidence reveals that males and high-socioeconomicstatus students tend to process new information on their own ability more effec-tively.
Information, Subjective expectations, Academic ability, Bayesianupdating, Overconfidence, Secondary education;
- C93: Field Experiments
- D80: General
- D83: Search • Learning • Information and Knowledge • Communication • Belief
- D84: Expectations • Speculations
- I23: Higher Education • Research Institutions
Matteo Bobba, and Veronica Frisancho, “Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City”, TSE Working Paper, n. 20-1070, January 2020, revised June 2020.
Matteo Bobba, and Veronica Frisancho, “Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City”, Journal of Econometrics, 2022, forthcoming.