A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases when processing information about themselves, but less is known about the underlying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regarding academic ability in a large sample of students transitioning from middle to high school in Mexico City. The analysis takes advantage of rich and longitudinal data on subjective beliefs together with randomized feedback about individual performance on an achievement test. On average, the erformance feedback reduces the relative role of priors on posteriors and shifts substantial probability mass toward the signal. Further evidence reveals that males and high-socioeconomic status students tend to process new information on their own ability more effectively.
Information; Subjective expectations; Academic ability; Bayesian updating; Over confidence; Secondary education.;
- C93: Field Experiments
- D80: General
- D83: Search • Learning • Information and Knowledge • Communication • Belief
- D84: Expectations • Speculations
- I24: Education and Inequality
Matteo Bobba, and Veronica Frisancho, “Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City”, Journal of Econometrics, 2022, forthcoming.
Matteo Bobba, and Veronica Frisancho, “Self-Perceptions about Academic Achievement: Evidence from Mexico City”, TSE Working Paper, n. 20-1070, January 2020, revised June 2020.
TSE Working Paper, n. 20-1070, January 2020, revised June 2020