Is risk taking an important channel by which monetary policy shocks affect economic activity? On the basis of a nonlinear structural VAR including a new measure of risk sensitivity by economic agents, we show that the role of the risk-taking channel depends on the state of the economy. While it is irrelevant during recession or normal times, it acts as an amplifier by boosting output during expansion. It means that, as long as monetary policy does not actively "lean against the wind", it may exacerbate boom-bust patterns.
Risk-taking channel; Monetary policy; Boom-bust cycle;
- C32: Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes
- E52: Monetary Policy
Patrick Fève, Pablo Garcia, and Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, “State-dependent risk taking and the transmission of monetary policy shocks”, Economics Letters, vol. 164, March 2018, pp. 10–14.
Patrick Fève, Pablo Garcia, and Jean-Guillaume Sahuc, “State-dependent risk taking and the transmission of monetary policy shocks”, TSE Working Paper, n. 17-872, December 2017.
TSE Working Paper, n. 17-872, December 2017