Published in La Tribune, on november 17, 2025
While the electricity sector in rich countries is the subject of endless debates about whether our energy needs should be met by wind farms, solar panel fields, or nuclear power plants (large or small), it is worth remembering that 730 million people still have no access to an electricity grid (International Energy Agency, IEA, 2025). The situation is particularly disappointing in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where 600 million people were in this situation in 2024. The overall electrification rate there stood at 51.4%, with notable disparities between urban (80.7%) and rural (30.7%) areas.
Why is the region unable to accelerate the catch-up in residential electricity coverage, particularly in rural areas?
Disparities in electricity development
As shown in the graph below (IEA), the population without access to electricity has fallen sharply in Asia over the period 2010-2020, while remaining stable in Africa. At the current rate of investment, around 520 million Africans will still not have access to electricity in 2035.
How can this near stagnation be explained? First, there is a purely demographic reason: electrification has increased, but so has the population, at a rate very close to the rate of investment growth. Then there is an economic reason: many inhabitants of sub-Saharan areas are too poor, especially in rural areas, to pay an electricity bill, and so the service cannot exist without subsidies, at least partial ones. There is also great disparity within the region itself, where, for example, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Senegal are doing better than other countries with very low GDP per capita. There are also governance issues, particularly institutional choices that are too often imported without being adapted to local characteristics and constraints. Finally, excessive technological ambition has long dominated the electrification strategies of many countries in the region. Too often, choices have been made in favor of large production units and unrealistic electricity transmission networks, particularly to rural areas with low population density. However, such equipment is slow and costly to install, two characteristic features that are not in line with the need for rapid and affordable access for populations still deprived of electricity. The best is sometimes the enemy of the good, including in technological choices.
Reconciling demand, investment choices, and financing capacity
To achieve universal access to modern energy by 2035 in sub-Saharan Africa, or more prosaically, to give households access to electricity, the IEA estimates that US$150 billion in investment will be needed, according to its report Financing Electricity Access in Africa published on October 20, 2025. These latest estimates assume that 45% of new connections will come from the expansion of electricity grids and 55% from decentralized solutions. These amounts cover interconnection needs as part of an integrated regional approach promoted by the African Union, but they do not cover the electricity needs of data centers that are expected to be installed very soon in several SSA countries.
The IEA suggests that the private sector should provide around 45% of the total required, mainly with domestic solar units. Access to private financing is an option often mentioned to accelerate coverage rates but rarely implemented in the poorest countries or in rural areas of more developed countries. In 2023, the private sector accounted for less than 30% of actual financing, far short of the amounts needed. Moreover, it benefited a limited number of countries in the region. The poor are rarely served.
This low level of private engagement highlights the ongoing challenge of the lack of commercial financing in this sector. The low per capita income of the populations concerned is an obvious obstacle to this financing option. If connected businesses or households cannot pay their bills, investors anticipate insufficient cash flow to cover investment and operating costs.
It therefore seems unrealistic to assume that Sub-Saharan Africa will be able to finance its electricity needs without massive aid from rich countries, beyond that expected from international organizations and other donors. This need for international aid is often recognized but continues to fall far short of the commitments made. For example, the "Nairobi Declaration" signed in September 2023 recalled that if developed countries wish to benefit from the SSA's efforts to combat global warming (in particular by not deforesting), they must "honor the commitment to provide $100 billion in annual climate finance, as promised at the Copenhagen conference" in 2009.
At this stage, this aid has not materialized, despite the efforts of several donors organized around what is known as Mission 300. In the spring of 2024, the World Bank and the African Development Bank joined forces with other partners with the aim of connecting 300 million people in SSA to electricity by 2030. The initial commitment from these actors is US$50 billion. The remaining two-thirds of the estimated needs still need to be found, at a time when many countries are reducing their development aid, notably the United States which withdrew its contribution to Mission 300 when Trump came to power.
Possible solutions and associated challenges
The latest IEA report highlights the importance of strategies that focus more systematically on decentralized solutions that are better suited and less costly for areas far from traditional networks. This solution should accelerate the rate of electricity coverage in rural areas and pave the way for a transition to more efficient and sustainable technologies in the future.
However, some of the challenges appear to have been underestimated. For example, given the fiscal context of countries and the financial situation of local suppliers, international organizations continue to rely on an increase in national public and international private commitments that are unlikely to materialize at the desired levels, or at least not quickly enough. Some organizations also recommend a significant increase in the share of equity in projects (from 20% to 33%) by 2035, more systematic use of crowdfunding, and increased access to local credit. These options are not an easy bet for a continent where risk premiums are often considered too severe by local actors. A study by the United Nations Development Programme estimates that pessimistic risk assessments of SSA by agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) generate an annual cost overrun of US$74.5 billion for these countries: half the estimated amount needed to finance universal access.
Also surprising is the underestimation of the impact on short-term demand of negotiations between several countries and investors in the development of data centers. In the short and medium term, it is not inconceivable that there will be competition between unmet residential needs and those of data centers and other new players in the modernization of the region's economies. For most countries, the regulatory frameworks in place are such that these new entrants will attempt to impose their pricing choices and privileged access to networks. This increased competition is very similar to that linked to the capture of the electricity market by large, electricity-intensive projects, as recently seen in Madagascar, which exacerbates the frustration of the population.
In practice, it will not be enough to adopt good resolutions or bet on rapid changes in the number and sources of funding to calm public discontent linked to the lack of access to reliable and affordable electricity. It will also be necessary to rethink regulation, and not just to allow securitization and other new forms of financing. Updates to sector regulation will also need to adjust tariff structures, the level and targeting of subsidies, and the margins available to make the most of opportunities for cross-subsidies between these new players and populations that have been waiting too long for access.
As always, the devil is in the details of implementation, and these are not yet on the political agenda. But ultimately, it is these details that will enable the entire African population to take advantage of new financing opportunities in the sector and enjoy reliable and affordable access to electricity as quickly as possible.
Photo: Picture Perfect Photographs on Unsplash
