Abstract
Market cycles play a great role in reinsurance. Cycle transitions are not independent from the claim arrival process: a large claim or a high number of claims may accelerate cycle transitions. To take this into account, a semi-Markovian risk model is proposed and analyzed. A refined Erlangization method is developed to compute the finite-time ruin probability of a reinsurance company. Numerical applications and comparisons to results obtained from simulation methods are given. The impact of dependency between claim amounts and phase changes is studied.
Keywords
Finite-time ruin probability; Reinsurance cycles; Erlangization; Dependence in risk theory; Phase-type distributions;
Reference
Mathieu Bargès, Olivier Loisel, and Xavier Venel, “On finite-time ruin probabilities with reinsurance cycles influenced by large claims”, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, vol. 2013, n. 3, 2013, pp. 163–185.
See also
Published in
Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, vol. 2013, n. 3, 2013, pp. 163–185