Across Europe, right-wing populists are gaining ground — from Germany’s AfD to France’s National Rally. Two new studies by Laurenz Guenther (Toulouse School of Economics and IAST) uncovers a structural reason: mainstream politicians are systematically out of step with their voters on cultural questions such as immigration, crime, and gender roles.
Drawing on surveys of more than 27,000 citizens and 1,000 parliamentarians in 27 European countries, Guenther finds that lawmakers are aligned with voters on economic issues. However, there exists a huge "representation gap" on nearly all cultural issues, where lawmakers are much more liberal than voters. On average, the difference between parliamentarians and voters is as large as the difference between the socialists and conservatives.
Immigration
The representation gap is systematic. As Guenther puts it: “the average citizen, voter, party member, man, woman, educated, uneducated, rich, poor, old, and young person is more culturally conservative than the average MP of their country. In particular, immigrants are more conservative regarding immigration and assimilation than their MPs.”
For example, he found that more than 50% of immigrants agree or strongly agree with the statement that immigration should be decreased significantly, while only 24% of MEPs think so. Similarly, about 72% of immigrants agree or strongly agree that immigrants should be required to adopt national traditions, while only 48% of parliamentarians think so.
The paper has just drawn attention from The New York Times, the Financial Times and commentators such as Tyler Cowen and Matt Yglesias, who describe it as a fresh way to understand populism through the lens of voter demand and elite supply. For journalists covering European politics, migration debates, or democratic resilience, it offers timely evidence that answers some important questions and raises many more.
Populism
Laurenz just published another article drawing evidence from the 2025 German Election. A sample of 5,040 German citizens was randomly assigned varying information about the immigration stance of Germany’s mainstream center-right CDU—an issue marked by a substantial representation gap. He found that perceptions of the CDU’s position significantly affect both vote intentions and incentivized behavioral measures: when the CDU is perceived as closer to the electorate’s conservative preferences on immigration, support for the right-wing populist AfD declines. "Our estimates indicate that the AfD’s vote share would shrink by as much as 75% if the CDU adopted its immigration stance."
Laurenz Guenther is a research fellow at the Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (Toulouse School of Economics) and a Fellow of the Institute for European Policy Making at Bocconi University.
Laurenz is available for phone or Zoom interview. If you're interested, please reach out to TSE Press Officer, Caroline Pain caroline.pain@tse-fr.eu
This news is part of our new series “Headline Research”. Each time a TSE researcher publishes a newsworthy study, we’ll let you - journalists - know, and offer you the opportunity to interview the author.
