September 17, 2018, 14:00–15:30
Room MS 001
Industrial Organization seminar
We examine the economies of density associated with the expansion of Amazon's distribution network from 1999 to 2018. We demonstrate that, in placing a fulfillment center in a new state, Amazon faces a trade-off between the revenue implications of exposing local customers to sales tax on their purchases and the cost savings from reducing the shipping distance to those customers. Using detailed data on online transactions, we estimate a model of demand for retail goods and show that consumers' online shopping is sensitive to sales taxes. We then use the demand estimates and the spatial distribution of consumers relative to Amazon's fulfillment centers to predict revenues and shipping distances under the observed fulfillment center roll-out and under counterfactual roll-outs over this time period. Using a moment inequalities approach, we infer the cost savings from being closer to customers that render the observed network roll-out optimal. We find that Amazon saves between $0.17 and $0.47 for every 100 mile reduction in the distance of shipping goods worth $30. In the context of its distribution network expansion, this estimate implies that Amazon has reduced its total shipping cost by over 50% and increased its profit margin by between 5 and 14% since 2006.