Seminar

Decomposing Wage Changes in the United States

Francis Vella (Georgetown University)

June 21, 2018, 11:00–12:30

Room MF 323

Econometrics and Empirical Economics Seminar

Abstract

We analyze the patterns and determinants of hourly real wage changes in the United States for the period 1976 to 2016 at various quantiles of the wage distribution while accounting for selection bias from the employment decision. Male wages at the median and below have decreased despite large increases in both the skill premia and the average level of educational attainment. Female wage growth at the lower quantiles is small. Wages at the upper quantiles of the distribution have increased for both genders. We find that composi- tion effects have increased wages at all quantiles but that the movements in the structural effects have generally determined the overall pattern of wages. There is only evidence of changes in the selection effects for the lower quan- tiles of the female wage distribution. We find that these components have combined to produce a substantial increase in wage inequality. The increased participation of females has further exacerbated female wage inequality.