Seminar

Maternal Health and the Baby Boom

Stefania Albanesi (Columbia University)

November 23, 2009, 17:00–18:30

Toulouse

Room MF 323

Political Economy Seminar

Abstract

Maternal deaths accounted for over 15% of all deaths of women in prime age years until the mid-1930s in the U.S. Starting in 1936, the maternal mortality rate dropped dramatically, reaching modern levels by the early 1950s. The female-male differential in life expectancy at age twenty rose from one to over six years over this time period. Moreover, there was a sharp reduction in the incidence of pregnancy related conditions, leading to a sizable decline in the health burden associated with pregnancy and childbirth. We argue that these developments contributed significantly to the mid-twentieth century Baby Boom, the rise in women’s educational attainment: The reduction in the health burden associated with pregnancy and childbirth increased the demand for children, while the associated rise in women’s life expectancy increased the returns from human capital investment. The resulting increase in the opportunity cost of children may also have contributed to the subsequent Baby Bust. We exploit the large cross-state variation in the size of the drop in maternal mortality to examine the impact on fertility for cohorts of women who were differentially exposed to the drop in maternal mortality, using a difference-in-difference estimation approach. We find that the drop in maternal mortality can account for 75% of the increase in fertility for women born between 1931 and 1938, who experienced the highest lifetime fertility. The drop in maternal mortality can account also for the rise in the female-male differential in college graduation rates for this and later cohorts. These findings provide new insights on the determinants of fertility behavior in the US and other countries that experienced similar improvements in maternal health.

JEL codes

  • J11: Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
  • J13: Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth
  • J24: Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity
  • N12: U.S. • Canada: 1913–
  • N3: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy