Working paper

Expected Fertility and Educational Investment

Evidence from the One-Child-Policy in China

Eva Raiber


How does future expected fertility affect current educational investment? Theory suggests that expected fertility can impact both returns to education and the resources available for parental consumption. Using policy data about varying eligibility criteria for second child permits during the One-Child-Policy in China, I investigate the effect of eligibility status on fertility and education. In the 1990s, second child permits increased the likelihood of having a second child by 11 percentage points. Being allowed to have a second child increased schooling by 0.7 years on average, an effect that is likely concentrated in the subset of individuals for whom the permit constraint is binding.


Fertility; Schooling Investment; Family Planning; China;

JEL codes

  • J13: Fertility • Family Planning • Child Care • Children • Youth
  • J24: Human Capital • Skills • Occupational Choice • Labor Productivity
  • O15: Human Resources • Human Development • Income Distribution • Migration


Eva Raiber, Expected Fertility and Educational Investment: Evidence from the One-Child-Policy in China, TSE Working Paper, n. 17-853, October 2017.

See also

Published in

TSE Working Paper, n. 17-853, October 2017