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Cristina Manea (BIS)
May 19, 2026, 11:30–12:30, Banque de France, Paris, room Room 4 and Online
We introduce targeted Taylor rules: monetary policy rules which allow for different reactions to demand– and supply–driven inflation. This new concept aligns with the strategy of the Federal Reserve — as reflected in its official communications. Estimates of this new type of rule suggest that U.S....
Mark Koyama (George Mason University)
Toulouse: IAST, May 19, 2026, 11:30–12:00, room Auditorium 5 (Second floor - TSE Building)
We model the political economy of the English Reformation to show how the Dissolution of the Monasteries (1536-1540) cemented Protestantism. Property rights over former Catholic monastic lands were insecure for as long as there was a possibility of return to Catholicism. Beneficiaries of monastic-...
Drew Fudenberg (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Toulouse: TSE, May 19, 2026, 11:00–12:15, room Auditorium 6
We characterize when one-step-ahead forecasts are consistent with a conditionally i.i.d. (CIID) model, i.e., Bayesian learning about a stable but unknown i.i.d. data-generating process. For two periods and binary outcomes, symmetry (pairwise exchangeability) and reinforcement (realized outcomes...
May 19, 09:00 to May 20, 2026, 14:00, room Auditorium 3
Hsin-Tien Tiffany Tsai (National University of Singapore)
TSE, May 18, 2026, 14:15–15:30, room Auditorium 4
This paper examines the impact of a vertical agreement between a downstream retailer and an upstream manufacturer in the context of the U.S. consumer battery industry, using detailed consumer receipt panel data. Following the agreement between Walmart (the retailer) and Energizer (the manufacturer...
Joakim Weill (Federal Reserve Board)
Toulouse: TSE, May 18, 2026, 11:00–12:15, room Auditorium 4
We use 70 million policies linked to mortgages and property-level disaster risk to show that credit scores impact homeowners insurance premiums as much as disaster risk. Homeowners with low credit pay 24% more for identical coverage than high–creditscore homeowners. Leveraging a natural experiment...
Jean-Jacques Forneron
Toulouse: TSE, May 18, 2026, 09:30–10:45, room A3
Timothy Christensen (Yale University)
TSE, May 12, 2026, 15:30–16:50, room Auditorium 4
Empirical models of demand for differentiated products rely on low-dimensional product representations to capture substitution patterns. These representations are increasingly proxied by applying ML methods to high-dimensional, unstructured data, including product descriptions and images. When...
Luisa Fuster (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid)
TSE, May 12, 2026, 14:00–15:30, room Auditorium 4
We study the forces driving polarization and higher wage inequality since 1980 using a structural model of occupation choice in the tradition of Roy (1951). In our model, changes in relative occupational skill prices proxy for changes in relative demand for occupational labor services. Our analysis...
Andrew Little (Berkeley University)
Toulouse: IAST, May 12, 2026, 11:30–12:30, room Auditorium 4 (First floor - TSE Building)
Debates about when and whether (partisan) directional motives influence information processing are hard to resolve because rational and motivated learning often look similar. We develop an experimental design to distinguish between these possibilities which focuses on the order in which...
