Nous avons le plaisir d’accueillir Xavier Debrun, Directeur général et Chef économiste de la Banque de France, pour un Business Talk le mercredi 7 octobre.

La conférence débutera à 12h45 dans l’Amphi MI-V Isaac (Manufacture des Tabacs).

Xavier Debrun présentera : Public Debt at Risk: A Parsimonious Framework.

Voici un court résumé (en anglais) : 

We propose an applied stochastic simulation framework for generating public debt sustainability assessments. The framework is grounded in a parsimonious, reduced-form empirical model that jointly captures the dynamic interactions among economic growth, public borrowing, central bank operations, debt accumulation, the primary fiscal balance, and the exchange rate. By embedding a fiscal reaction function directly into the model, and estimating parameter and shock uncertainty using bootstrapped distributions, the model supports internally consistent forecasts of public debt paths. This allows for the construction of probabilistically meaningful fan charts and the estimation of “debt-at-risk” defined as the highest debt ratio likely to materialize within a specific probability range over 1 to 5 years. Our approach addresses recent critiques, such as Bernanke’s 2024 assessment of the Bank of England’s scenario-driven fan charts. We do so by eliminating judgment-based inputs and grounding forecast uncertainty in both the estimated economic structure and innovations. This framework aims at strengthening the analytical credibility of fan charts and provides a transparent, replicable, risk-based approach to fiscal forecasting and policy design.

Pour assister à cette conférence, veuillez vous inscrire via ce formulaire : https://formulaire.ut-capitole.fr/index.php/837526?lang=en

Nous vous remercions d’arriver 10 minutes avant le début de la conférence afin de nous permettre de vérifier votre inscription. Business Talk commencera à 12h45.

Ouvert aux étudiants du niveau A1 jusqu'au doctorat.