The Welfare Consequences of Urban Traffic Regulations

Résumé

We develop and estimate a structural model of urban transportation to evaluate traffic-reducing policies in Paris. Individuals choose transportation mode and departure time subject to heterogeneous preferences, scheduling constraints, and congestion technologies that vary across city zones. We find that mode switching dominates temporal substitution, limiting concerns about trip rescheduling undermining the effectiveness of peak-hour interventions. All policies reduce consumer surplus, as speed gains never offset their costs, but toll-based instruments generate welfare gains through revenue redistribution. The per-kilometer toll achieves, on average, 77.5% of first-best welfare gains across stringency levels.

Mots-clés

structural model; policy evaluation, transportation; congestion, distributional effects; air pollution;

Codes JEL

L9: Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities
R41: Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion • Safety and Accidents • Transportation Noise
Q52: Pollution Control Adoption Costs • Distributional Effects • Employment Effects