22 septembre 2026, 11h30–12h30
BDF, Paris
Salle Online and in Room 4GH
Séminaire Banque de France
Résumé
We build a macro-finance model with an occasionally binding financing constraint where real interest rates have opposite effects on current and future financial stability, with the contemporaneous impact driven by valuation effects (akin to those triggering the 2023 banking turmoil) and the future impact driven by reach-for-yield by intermediaries. We use this model to illustrate the concept of the financial stability interest rate, r**, which we propose as a quantitative summary statistic for financial vulnerabilities. We provide a measure of r** for the U.S. economy and discuss its evolution over the past fifty years.
Mots-clés
r**; financial crises; financial stability; occasionally binding credit constraint;
Codes JEL
- E4: Money and Interest Rates
- E5: Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
- G0: General