The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US

Résumé

This paper uses an estimated sticky-price model to identify endogenous movements in government consumption in the U.S. economy. Two feedback effects are considered, one originating from the stock of public debt and one from contemporaneous output. The data provide significant statistical evidence in favor of such mechanisms, even though a subsample analysis reveals that their strength may have decreased over time. Monte Carlo simulations assessing a DSGE model with exogenous spending and various identified VARs suggest that failing to account for these feedbacks may induce a severe upward bias in estimated multipliers.

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Référence

Alban Moura, « The effects of government spending endogeneity on estimated multipliers in the US », TSE Working Paper, n° 15-610, novembre 2015.