Information and conflict: From the role of (social) media and public opinion to big data and forecasting

Résumé

Information plays a critical role in shaping behavior, particularly in conflict environments where access to and interpretation of information can significantly influence decisions. This review synthesizes recent empirical research at the intersection of information, media, and conflict. It is structured around three central themes. First, we examine how traditional and social media affect the dynamics of violence, ethnic tensions, hate crime, protests, and terrorism. We draw on historical and contemporary case studies to discuss how media influences conflict through incentives, persuasion, and coordination. Second, we explore how information and uncertainty shape the indirect socio-economic impacts of violence. They significantly alter the expectations and economic behavior of individuals, firms, and investors, even in regions not directly exposed to violence. Finally, we review recent advancements in conflict prediction using big data and artificial intelligence, with a focus on news-based models that identify early warning signals and latent risks of violence. Within each theme, we also outline key policy implications and identify gaps in the literature. These gaps call for greater synthesis across research areas to better understand and mitigate the impacts of conflict.