Jean-Paul Azam et Véronique Thelen, « Did the Aid Boom Pacify Sub-Saharan Africa?: Ex-Post Evaluation Using a Near-Identification Approach », TSE Working Paper, n° 14-544, décembre 2014, révision mai 2017.
The incidence of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa since the turn of the century is less than half of what it was on average in the last quarter of the 20th century. This paper shows that the aid boom triggered by 9/11 played a key role in achieving purposefully this result using panel data for 46 African countries over four decades. It applies a nearidentification approach to test the aid-conflict tradeoff, taking due account of asymmetric information between the donors and the econometrician. Preference proxies are used in the first-stage to elicit the relevant hidden information.