Recherche avancée

Ludwig Straub et Robert Ulbricht

n° 15-604, 1 octobre 2015, révision décembre 2017

We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty where the ability of investors to learn about firm-level fundamentals declines during financial crises. At the same time, higher uncertainty reinforces financial distress, causing a persistent cycle of uncertainty, pessimistic expectations, and...

Arnaud Philippe

n° 17-864, septembre 2015

This paper documents how quickly and how precisely would-be offenders understand and adapt to criminal law. It relies on a mandatory sentencing act against repeat offenders passed by the French parliament in August 2007. It exploits the gap between the public presentation of the law – an overall...

Emmanuelle Auriol et Steven G.M. Schilizzi

vol. 116, septembre 2015, p. 105–121

This paper studies how signaling the credence attributes of consumer goods distorts their market equilibrium in developing countries. Costs of certification, sunk in order to achieve credibility, play a key role in producing an oligopolistic market, leading to high prices that form a barrier for...

Chiara Canta et Pierre Dubois

vol. 15, n° 4, septembre 2015, p. 1939–1973

We study spousal peer effects on smoking and their implication for the health of children. Smoking decisions are modeled as equilibrium strategies of an incomplete information game within the couple. Using French data, we identify two peer effects: a smoking enhancing effect of smoking partners and...

Sandrine Casanova et Eve Leconte

vol. 3, n° 3, septembre 2015, p. 317–338

In survey analysis, the estimation of the cumulative distribution function (cdf) is of great interest: it allows for instance to derive quantiles estimators or other non linear parameters derived from the cdf. We consider the case where the response variable is a right censored duration variable....

Henrik Andersson, James K. Hammitt et Kristian Sundström

vol. 66, n° 3, septembre 2015, p. 727–752

This paper examines the value of reducing foodborne risk. Previous research on the valuation of health risk has been dominated by the study of mortality risk. However, in most cases foodborne illnesses are non-fatal, so we focus on individuals’ preferences for reducing morbidity risk, while also...

Jacques Delpla

1 octobre 2015

Heidi Colleran, Peter T. Ellison, Andrzej Galbarczyk, Grazyna Jasienska, Magdalena Klimek, Inger Thune et Anna Ziomkiewicz

vol. 27, n° 5, septembre 2015, p. 667–673

Daniel F. Garrett et Alessandro Pavan

vol. 159, septembre 2015, p. 775–818

We study the optimal dynamics of incentives for a manager whose ability to generate cash flows changes stochastically with time and is his private information. We show that distortions (aka, wedges) under optimal contracts may either increase or decrease over time. In particular, when the manager's...

Johannes Hörner, Satoru Takahashi et Nicolas Vieille

vol. 83, n° 5, septembre 2015, p. 1795–1848

This paper characterizes an equilibrium payoff subset for dynamic Bayesian games as discounting vanishes. Monitoring is imperfect, transitions may depend on actions, types may be correlated, and values may be interdependent. The focus is on equilibria in which players report truthfully. The...