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Sultan Mehmood, Avner Seror et Daniel L. Chen
n° 22-1393, novembre 2022, révision mars 2023
We estimate the impact of the Ramadan fasting ritual on criminal sentencing decisions for Pakistan and India from half a century of daily data. We use random case assignment and exogenous variation in fasting intensity within Ramadan due to the rotating Islamic calendar and the geographical...
Zoe Purcell et Jean-François Bonnefon
n° 22-1387, novembre 2022
Artificial Intelligence (AI) can be harnessed to create sophisticated social and moral scoring systems —enabling people and organizations to form judgements of others at scale. However, it also poses significant ethical challenges and is, subsequently, the subject of wide debate. As these...
Christian Gouriéroux, Alain Monfort et Jean-Paul Renne
vol. 144, n° 104502, novembre 2022
One of the objectives of the recent microprudential regulation is to separate the computation of required capital for short-run and long-run risks. This paper provides a coherent framework to define, compute, and update these components. The approach is developed in greater details in the context...
Eric Gautier et Christiern Rose
n° 2211.02249, novembre 2022
We propose and implement an approach to inference in linear instrumental variables models which is simultaneously robust and computationally tractable. Inference is based on self-normalization of sample moment conditions, and allows for (but does not require) many (relative to the sample size),...
Leopoldo Fergusson, Horacio Larreguy et Juan Felipe Riano
vol. 132, n° 648, novembre 2022, p. 2815–2834
We develop a model of the politics of state capacity building undertaken by incumbent parties that have a comparative advantage in clientelism rather than in public goods provision. The model predicts that, when challenged by opponents, clientelistic incumbents have the incentive to prevent...
Péter Bayer, Joel Brown, Johan Dubbeldam et Mark Broom
vol. 551-552, n° 111237, novembre 2022
This paper develops and analyzes a Markov chain model for the treatment of cancer. Cancer therapy is modeled as the patient’s Markov Decision Problem, with the objective of maximizing the patient’s discounted expected quality of life years. Patients make decisions on the duration of therapy based...
Takuro Yamashita et Shuguang Zhu
vol. 14, n° 4, novembre 2022, p. 494–514
In private-value auction environments, Chung and Ely (2007) establish maxmin and Bayesian foundations for dominant-strategy mechanisms. We first show that similar foundation results for ex post mechanisms hold true even with interdependent values if the interdependence is only cardinal. This...
Matteo Bobba et Veronica Frisancho
vol. 231, n° 1, novembre 2022, p. 58–73
A growing body of evidence suggests that people exhibit large biases whenprocessing information about themselves, but less is known about the under-lying inference process. This paper studies belief updating patterns regardingacademic ability in a large sample of students...
Eugenia Gonzalez-Aguado
n° 22-1379, novembre 2022
There has been a growing concern about the vulnerability of emerging countries to fluc-tuations in international interest rates. Empirical evidence shows that these countries suffer significant output drops when developed countries raise their interest rates. In this paper, I document that an...
Patrick Fève, Paul Beaudry, Fabrice Collard, Alain Guay et Franck Portier
n° 22-1384, novembre 2022
Most macroeconomic models, both fully structural models as well as SVAR models, view economic outcomes as the product of a combination of endogenous and exogenous dynamic forces. In particular, the exogenous forces are generally modeled as a set of linearly independent dynamics processes. In this...
