How Positive Was the Positive Check? Investment and Fertility in the Aftermath of the 1918 Influenza in India

Résumé

The 1918 influenza epidemic struck India when the subcontinent was mired in its long-term Malthusian equilibrium of low population growth and stable per-capita consumption. Its terrible death toll left survivors with additional agricultural land, which we show they rapidly put to agricultural use with no decrease in yields. We explore the extent to which this increased per-capita wealth gave rise, over the ensuing decades, to heightened investments in both child quantity as well as child quality. Consistent with most Malthusian unified growth theories, we find that individuals in heavily affected districts had more children in the aftermath of the influenza. Contrary to these theories, we also find that these children were taller and better educated. Our results suggest that the preference for child quality existed even in societies that appeared Malthusian both to contemporary observers and modern historians. collaboration with Dave Donaldson (Stanford University)