Electoral Accountability in Multiparty Contests

Résumé

We develop a theoretical framework and conduct a survey experiment to assess electoral accountability in multiparty plurality contests. Compared to two-party elections, multiparty elections offer voters additional channels with which to respond to incumbent performance, with subtle but potentially important implications for electoral accountability. We provide conditions under which more non-Duvergerian competition (i.e.\ greater support for uncompetitive candidates) is associated with stronger punishment for incumbent misconduct; our analysis suggests that these conditions are generally unlikely to be met. We then conduct a survey experiment on British voters to estimate parameters from our model. Our findings suggest that the non-Duvergerian nature of many plurality elections in the UK weakens electoral accountability in that setting, and the same may be true in Canada, India and other contexts where multiple parties win support in plurality contests.