Correlation, Partitioning and the Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote under the Majority Rule

Résumé

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the probability of casting a decisive vote under the majority rule for a class of random electorate models encompassing the celebrated Impartial Culture (IC) and Impartial Anonymous Culture (IAC) models. The emphasis is on the impact of correlation across votes on the order of magnitude of this event. Our proof techniques use arguments from probability theory on one hand and combinatorial and algorithmic tools for counting integer points inside convex polytopes on the other hand.

Mots-clés

Codes JEL

Remplace

Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley et Hatem Smaoui, « The Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote: From IC to IAC trhough Ehrhart's Polynomials and Strong Mixing », TSE Working Paper, n° 12-313, juin 2012, révision avril 2014.

Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley et Hatem Smaoui, « Correlation, Partitioning and the Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote under the Majority Rule », TSE Working Paper, n° 16-622, février 2016.

Référence

Michel Le Breton, Dominique Lepelley et Hatem Smaoui, « Correlation, Partitioning and the Probability of Casting a Decisive Vote under the Majority Rule », Journal of Mathematical Economics, vol. 64, mai 2016, p. 11–22.