Monsieur Serge Nyawa Womo soutiendra sa thèse de doctorat en Sciences économiques le 25 juillet 2018 à 15h30, Salle MS 001(Manufacture des Tabacs) sur le sujet «Three Essays on Financial Risks Using High Frequency Data »
Directeurs de thèse : Nour MEDDAHI, Professeur, TSE
Les membres du jury sont :
- Professeur Christian GOURIEROUX, Université de Toronto
- Professeur Dacheng XIU, Université de Chicago
- Professeur Tim BOLLERSLEV, Université Duke
- Professeur Eric GAUTHIER, TSE
- Professeur Jihyun KIM, TSE
- Professeur Nour MEDDAHI, TSE
Résumé (en anglais):
This thesis is about financial risks and high frequency data, with a particular focus on financial systemic risk, the risk of high dimensional portfolios and market microstructure noise. It is organized on three chapters.
The first chapter provides a continuous time reduced-form model for the propagation of negative idiosyncratic shocks within a financial system. Using common factors and mutually exciting jumps both in price and volatility, we distinguish between sources of systemic failure such as macro risk drivers, connectedness and contagion. The estimation procedure relies on the GMM approach and takes advantage of high frequency data. We use models' parameters to define weighted, directed networks for shock transmission, and we provide new measures for the financial system fragility. We construct paths for the propagation of shocks, firstly within a number of key US banks and insurance companies, and secondly within the nine largest S\&P sectors during the period 2000-2014. We find that beyond common factors, systemic dependency has two related but distinct channels: price and volatility jumps.
In the second chapter, we develop a new factor-based estimator of the realized covolatility matrix, applicable in situations when the number of assets is large and the high-frequency data are contaminated with microstructure noises. Our estimator relies on the assumption of a factor structure for the noise component, separate from the latent systematic risk factors that characterize the cross- sectional variation in the frictionless returns. The new estimator provides theoretically more efficient and finite-sample more accurate estimates of large-scale integrated covolatility, correlation, and inverse covolatility matrices than other recently developed realized estimation procedures. These theoretical and simulation-based findings are further corroborated by an empirical application related to portfolio allocation and risk minimization involving several hundred individual stocks.
The last chapter presents a factor-based methodology to estimate microstructure noise characteristics and frictionless prices under a high dimensional setup. We rely on factor assumptions both in latent returns and microstructure noise. The methodology is able to estimate rotations of common factors, loading coefficients and volatilities in microstructure noise for a huge number of stocks. Using stocks included in the S\&P500 during the period spanning January 2007 to December 2011, we estimate microstructure noise common factors and compare them to some market-wide liquidity measures computed from real financial variables. We obtain that: the first factor is correlated to the average spread and the average number of shares outstanding; the second and third factors are related to the spread; the fourth and fifth factors are significantly linked to the closing log-price. In addition, volatilities of microstructure noise factors are widely explained by the average spread, the average volume, the average number of trades and the average trade size.