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DTSTART:20261025T030000
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UID:calendar.142528.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260505T101531Z
CREATED:20260504T081001Z
DESCRIPTION:Mishel Ghassibe (CREI\, Barcelona)\, “Intertemporal pass-throug
 h”\, Séminaire Banque de France\, June 2\, 2026\, 11:30–12:30\, Banque de 
 France\, Paris\, room Salle 4 de l'espace conférence.\n\nForward-looking p
 ricing is at the core of modern macroeconomics\, yet a gap remains between
  its theoretical foundations and their empirical validation. To bridge thi
 s gap\, we study intertemporal pass-through (iPT): the sensitivity of firm
 s’ reset prices to changes in their expected future marginal costs\, a mic
 ro building block of foresight in aggregate inflation. On the empirical si
 de\, we obtain direct iPT estimates by combining UK firm-level survey data
  with idiosyncratic news shocks from a natural experiment: the March 2019 
 announcement of a future tariff schedule in the event of a ”No-Deal” Brexi
 t. We find iPT to be largest among firms with the lowest frequency of pric
 e adjustment and those expecting the cost shock to arrive earlier. In addi
 tion\, iPT is smaller among firms with state-dependent pricing and for lar
 ger shocks. On the theory side\, we derive iPT in a model with heterogeneo
 us adjustment frequencies and perceived shock horizons\, formally reconcil
 ing our empirical findings on the drivers of iPT differences. We also use 
 our setup to assess the general equilibrium consequences of iPT heterogene
 ity. In particular\, we show that the sensitivity of aggregate inflation t
 o changes in future costs is convex in non-adjustment frequencies and perc
 eived shock horizons. As a result\, iPT heterogeneity amplifies the degree
  of forward-lookingness of macroeconomic aggregates. Thus\, announcements 
 of future policies have contemporaneous effects\, and heterogeneity in pri
 cing decisions increases their magnitude.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260602T123000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260602T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20260505T001001Z
LOCATION:June 2\, 2026\, 11:30–12:30\, Banque de France\, Paris\, room Sall
 e 4 de l'espace conférence
SUMMARY:Séminaire Banque de France
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2026-intertemporal-pass-through
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