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UID:calendar.141721.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260715T035702Z
CREATED:20260202T121001Z
DESCRIPTION:Drew Fudenberg (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)\, “Forec
 asts and Conditionally I.I.D. Models”\, Economic Theory Seminar\, Toulouse
 : TSE\, May 19\, 2026\, 11:00–12:15\, room Auditorium 6.\n\nWe characteriz
 e when one-step-ahead forecasts are consistent with a conditionally\ni.i.d
 . (CIID) model\, i.e.\, Bayesian learning about a stable but unknown\ni.i.
 d. data-generating process. For two periods and binary outcomes\, symmetry
 \n(pairwise exchangeability) and reinforcement (realized outcomes become m
 ore\nlikely) are necessary and sufficient. For two periods and arbitrary f
 inite outcomes\,\nforecasts admit a CIID representation if and only if a f
 orecast-derived\nmatrix of joint probabilities is completely positive\; wi
 th at most four outcomes\,\ncomplete positivity reduces to positive semide
 finiteness. Two-period forecasts\ncannot detect beliefs in positively auto
 correlated outcomes\, but some negatively\nautocorrelated beliefs can be i
 dentified. For multi-period forecasts with\nbinary outcomes\, we derive an
  easily checked characterization of CIID representations\nby linking to th
 e truncated moment problem\, and show how the\nminimal-support rationaliza
 tions depend on the number of periods. With multiple\nperiods and outcomes
 \, CIID holds exactly when forecasts satisfy pairwise\nexchangeability and
  the associated hierarchy of moment tensors is completely\npositive.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260519T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20260519T131500
LAST-MODIFIED:20260514T001001Z
LOCATION:Toulouse: TSE\, May 19\, 2026\, 11:00–12:15\, room Auditorium 6
SUMMARY:Economic Theory Seminar
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2026-forecasts-and-conditionall
 y-iid-models
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