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UID:calendar.137205.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260309T032522Z
CREATED:20250418T081001Z
DESCRIPTION:Tara Hamadi (Queen Mary\, University of London)\, “The Macroeco
 nomic Implications of Carbon Pricing Announcements: Evidence from the EU E
 TS”\, Séminaire Banque de France\, April 28\, 2025\, 11:00–12:30\, BDF\, P
 aris\, room Salle 7 de l'espace conférence and Online.\n\nThis paper studi
 es the effect of carbon pricing shocks on the macroeconomy using a highfre
 quency identification approach. Focusing on the European carbon market\, I
  consider whether carbon policy announcements can be summarised by a singl
 e factor\, or whether there are additional dimensions that need to be acco
 unted for. By measuring the high-frequency surprise changes of a spectrum 
 of EUA carbon futures around 145 regulatory events\, I find that the event
 s can be summarised by two factors rather than just a single factor. A par
 ticular rotation of the orthogonal instruments is used to derive two novel
  instruments\, namely\, an “action” instrument\, which captures changes to
  the current carbon policy rate\, and an “expected path” instrument\, whic
 h captures changes to the expectations about future carbon policy. I measu
 re the effects of the two factors on a class of asset prices by estimating
  a daily local-projection model. This is complemented by estimating a Baye
 sian external instruments VAR model to map out the dynamic macroeconomic e
 ffects. I document that a tighter carbon policy successfully reduces emiss
 ions\, although this is simultaneously met with significantly lower econom
 ic activity and higher prices that are persistent over the horizons. More 
 importantly\, the results indicate that the 'expected path' instrument dom
 inates in its negative implications on macroeconomic aggregates\, stressin
 g the importance of capturing the additional dimension of carbon policy an
 nouncements\, particularly from a policy perspective.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20250428T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20250428T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20250419T001001Z
LOCATION:April 28\, 2025\, 11:00–12:30\, BDF\, Paris\, room Salle 7 de l'es
 pace conférence and Online
SUMMARY:Séminaire Banque de France
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2025-macroeconomic-implications
 -carbon-pricing-announcements-evidence-eu-ets
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