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DTSTART:20241027T030000
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UID:calendar.136501.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260712T033236Z
CREATED:20250106T121001Z
DESCRIPTION:Leonardo Iania (UCL)\, “Macro Risk”\, Séminaire Banque de Franc
 e\, May 6\, 2025\, 11:30–12:30\, BDF\, Paris\, room Salle 4 de l'espace co
 nférence et Online.\n\nWe guide the reader through key statistical techniq
 ues for monitoring and forecasting macroeconomic risk. Moving beyond stand
 ard linear point forecasts\, we demonstrate how to construct flexible cond
 itional distributions of future GDP growth. We show that several methods c
 an be leveraged to achieve this goal: quantile regression\, Markov switchi
 ng models\, and large-scale techniques. Since it captures the likelihood o
 f all possible future outcomes\, the conditional distribution of future GD
 P growth serves as an ideal tool for assessing macroeconomic vulnerabiliti
 es. The insights presented in this paper have implications for policymaker
 s\, practitioners\, and academics.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20250506T123000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20250506T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20250418T001001Z
LOCATION:May 6\, 2025\, 11:30–12:30\, BDF\, Paris\, room Salle 4 de l'espac
 e conférence et Online
SUMMARY:Séminaire Banque de France
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2025-macro-risk
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