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DTSTART:20241027T030000
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UID:calendar.135285.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260811T175730Z
CREATED:20240710T101001Z
DESCRIPTION:Olivier Coibion (University of Texas\, Austin)\, “The Causal Ef
 fects of Inflation Uncertainty on Household' Beliefs and  Actions”\, Macro
 economics Seminar\, TSE\, March 18\, 2025\, 14:00–15:30\, room Auditorium 
 4.\n\nWe implement a survey-based randomized information treatment that ge
 nerates independent variation in the inflation expectations and the uncert
 ainty about future inflation of European households. This variation allows
  us to assess how both first and second moments of inflation expectations 
 separately affect subsequent household decisions. We document several key 
 findings. First\, higher inflation uncertainty leads households to reduce 
 their subsequent durable goods purchases for several months\, while a high
 er expected level of inflation increases them. Second\, an increase in unc
 ertainty about inflation induces households to tilt their portfolios towar
 ds safe and away from riskier asset holdings. Third\, higher inflation unc
 ertainty encourages household job search consistent with a strong precauti
 onary motive for labor supply\, leading to higher subsequent employment am
 ong the unemployed and less part-time employment among the alreadyemployed
 . Finally\, we document that the level of inflation expectations has a dif
 ferent effect from uncertainty in inflation expectations and thus it is cr
 ucial to take into account both to measure their separate effects on decis
 ions and in policy communication.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20250318T140000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20250318T153000
LAST-MODIFIED:20260113T095129Z
LOCATION:TSE\, March 18\, 2025\, 14:00–15:30\, room Auditorium 4
SUMMARY:Macroeconomics Seminar
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2025-causal-effects-inflation-u
 ncertainty-household-beliefs-and-actions
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