BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
PRODID:-//Date iCal//NONSGML kigkonsult.se iCalcreator 2.20.2//
METHOD:PUBLISH
X-WR-CALNAME;VALUE=TEXT:TSE
BEGIN:VTIMEZONE
TZID:Europe/Paris
BEGIN:STANDARD
DTSTART:20241027T030000
TZOFFSETFROM:+0200
TZOFFSETTO:+0100
TZNAME:CET
END:STANDARD
BEGIN:DAYLIGHT
DTSTART:20240331T020000
TZOFFSETFROM:+0100
TZOFFSETTO:+0200
RDATE:20250330T020000
TZNAME:CEST
END:DAYLIGHT
END:VTIMEZONE
BEGIN:VEVENT
UID:calendar.135246.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260606T105205Z
CREATED:20240710T061001Z
DESCRIPTION:David Cutler (Harvard University)\, “Why Has the Opioid Epidemi
 c Gone on for So Long?”\, Behavior\, Institutions\, and Development Semina
 r\, September 19\, 2024\, 11:00–12:30\, room Auditorium 4.\n\nOpioid overd
 ose death rates in the United States have risen continuously for over thre
 e decades\, increasing 2\,142 percent in total from 1990 to 2020. This is 
 surprising. One might expect drug epidemics to be self-limiting\, as polic
 y and individual behavior reacts to observed deaths. We study why opioid d
 eaths have risen so greatly and for so long. We consider three reasons for
  a prolonged epidemic: exogenous and continuing changes in demand or suppl
 y\, and spillovers in demand for opioids across users\, which we term “thi
 ck market externalities.” We show there is no evidence of sufficiently lar
 ge exogenous changes in the demand or supply of opioids that could explain
  such a prolonged increase in death rates. We test for spillovers using co
 unty-level data on opioid deaths from 1991–2018 and opioid shipments from 
 2006–2009\, combined with data on friendships and distance between countie
 s. Estimating a model with addiction and spatial spillovers\, we find larg
 e spillovers in opioid use and deaths across areas. A shock that increases
  opioid death rates by 1 in an index county causes 0.38 to 0.76 more death
 s in other counties because of spillovers. Because opioids are addictive\,
  this leads to even more deaths and spillovers in future years. In some sp
 ecifications\, these effects are large enough to generate a continuously i
 ncreasing epidemic without any ongoing changes in demand or supply. We est
 imate spillovers explain 84 to 92 percent of opioid deaths from 1990 to 20
 18 and are the main reason deaths have increased for so long.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20240919T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20240919T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20260424T001001Z
LOCATION:September 19\, 2024\, 11:00–12:30\, room Auditorium 4
SUMMARY:Behavior\, Institutions\, and Development Seminar
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2024-why-has-opioid-epidemic-go
 ne-so-long
END:VEVENT
END:VCALENDAR