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DTSTART:20221030T030000
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UID:calendar.129095.field_date.0@www.tse-fr.eu
DTSTAMP:20260518T022445Z
CREATED:20220719T131001Z
DESCRIPTION:Gilat Levy (London School of Economics)\, “Political social-lea
 rning: short-term memory and cycles of polarisation: Economic Theory/Behav
 ior\, Institutions and Development joint seminar”\, Economic Theory Semina
 r\, Toulouse: TSE\, September 20\, 2022\, 11:00–12:30\, room Auditorium 3.
 \n\nIn this paper we explore the effect of short-term memory on political 
 outcomes\nin a model in which politics is viewed as a collective learning 
 process. We analyse a dynamic model in which voters use past observations 
 to make inferences about the true data\ngenerating process\, and political
  parties are self-interested with polarised ideal policies. Voters balance
  party loyalty with a desire to vote for the party whose policy is a based
  on a\nbetter interpretation of past observations. We show that short-term
  memory leads to political cycles of polarisation and consensus. A short-t
 erm history involving only periods of\nconsensus implies little variation 
 in voters data\, and hence less precise knowledge about\nthe true state of
  the world\; this allows parties to push their self interests. Alternative
 ly\,\nperiods of polarisation imply sufficient variation which at some poi
 nt allows voters to be\nconfident about what is the true model\; this forc
 es parties to converge on the policy that fits\nthat model. Our framework 
 also sheds light on the relation between policy uncertainty and\npolitical
  polarisation\, and on the effects of crises on political competition.
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/Paris:20220920T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/Paris:20220920T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20260113T095129Z
LOCATION:Toulouse: TSE\, September 20\, 2022\, 11:00–12:30\, room Auditoriu
 m 3
SUMMARY:Economic Theory Seminar
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.tse-fr.eu/seminars/2022-political-social-learning-
 short-term-memory-and-cycles-polarisation
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