Distributional Effects of Race-Blind Affirmative Action

Abstract

The “Texas Top Ten” law guaranteed admissions to all students ranking in the top decile of their high school class to each public university in the state of Texas, including the state flagship universities. This paper evaluates the effects of Texas Top Ten and associated scholarship programs on the distribution of college applications, admissions, and matriculation and on students’ performance in college. I construct a model of students’ application portfolios and financial-aid application decisions, colleges’ preferences and admissions rules, students’ choice of college, and students’ grades and persistence in college. I estimate this model using a survey of a cohort of Texas high school seniors, together with administrative records of Texas universities. I find that Texas Top Ten led to a 10% increase in underrepresented minority enrollment at the state flagship universities. Next, I consider a large expansion of the Longhorn Opportunity Scholarship, which provides scholarships at UT Austin. Expanding the program to cover all high schools with poverty rates above 60% would cost an additional $60 per student enrolled at UT Austin and lead to an increase in underrepresented minority enrollment of about 5%. The effects on students from poor high schools are larger than those of purely informational interventions. Relative to Texas Top Ten, a hypothetical raceconscious affirmative action policy that awards points to minority applicants would attract underrepresented minority students with relatively poor class rank from relatively affluent high schools. These students would achieve lower college GPAs at flagship universities than those minority students admitted under Texas Top Ten.